Evaluating the Effectiveness of Nigeria’s REDD-Plus Readiness Programme in Edo and Cross River States

Nigeria's participation in the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD-plus) has involved significant investment in institutional readiness development, yet independent evaluation of programme effectiveness in altering forest governance and outcomes at the sub-national level is absent from the peer-reviewed literature. This study evaluates the effectiveness of REDD-plus readiness activities implemented in Edo and Cross River States between 2019 and 2023, focusing on institutional capacity, forest monitoring systems, stakeholder engagement processes, and deforestation trend outcomes. A theory-of-change evaluation framework was applied, combining document analysis, key informant interviews with 38 programme actors, stakeholder survey data from 95 community respondents, and analysis of forest cover change using Landsat data over the programme period. Institutional capacity improvements were documented in both states, particularly in forest carbon monitoring and measurement, reporting, and verification procedures. Stakeholder engagement quality improved over programme duration but remained skewed toward government agencies and non-governmental organisations, with limited direct participation from forest-dependent communities. Deforestation rates in the two states showed no statistically significant reduction attributable to the programme period, compared to pre-programme trends, suggesting that readiness investments have not yet translated into on-the-ground behavioural change. The study identifies weak benefit-sharing design and incomplete safeguard implementation as the primary explanatory factors for the limited impact and recommends targeted corrective actions in both states. Keywords: REDD-plus, forest governance, deforestation, Edo State, Cross River State