Food System Transformation and Nutrition Transition in Nigeria: Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Responses

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of food system transformation and nutrition transition in Nigeria, developing an original analytical framework that integrates agricultural economics, nutrition science, and food systems thinking to explain the co-existence of undernutrition and overnutrition in the same population. Nigeria is experiencing a dual nutrition burden, with persistent stunting and micronutrient deficiency coexisting with rapidly rising overweight, obesity, and diet-related non-communicable diseases. The drivers of this transition include urbanisation, income growth, changing food retail environments, and food system structural changes. This study develops a food systems analytical framework that traces nutritional outcomes from agricultural production through processing, retail, and consumption. Empirical evidence is generated from three data sources: analysis of 20-year dietary transition data from nationally representative household consumption surveys, primary food retail environment mapping in Lagos, Kano, and Enugu, and qualitative interviews with 60 food system stakeholders including producers, processors, retailers, and policymakers. Structural equation modelling links food system drivers to dietary pattern changes. Findings reveal that dietary quality has improved on diversity measures but deteriorated on ultra-processed food intake and diet-related NCD risk measures, with urban-rural and income-level divergence. The study contributes an original Nigerian food system transformation framework and recommends integrated nutrition-sensitive food system policies addressing both supply and demand dimensions.

Keywords: food system transformation, nutrition transition, Nigeria, dietary quality, non-communicable diseases.