Geospatial Analysis of Conflict Events and Displacement Patterns in Plateau State

Farmer-herder conflicts and intercommunal violence in Plateau State have produced recurring displacement of rural communities, disrupting agricultural production and humanitarian service delivery in the North Central zone. This study conducts a geospatial analysis of conflict events and displacement patterns in Plateau State using ACLED conflict event data, UNHCR displacement tracking reports, and GPS-verified settlement location databases. Conflict events from 2019 to 2024 are geocoded and visualised using kernel density estimation and space-time cube analysis in ArcGIS Pro to identify hotspot clusters and temporal trends. The spatial relationship between conflict event density and the distribution of Internally Displaced Persons camps and hosting communities is examined using spatial regression modelling. Results indicate that conflict hotspots are concentrated in the southern LGAs of Barkin Ladi, Riyom, and Bassa, with seasonal intensification correlated with the onset of the dry season grazing period. Displacement patterns show a clear directional flow from rural conflict zones toward Jos city and larger garrison towns. The study contributes geospatial evidence to the Plateau State Peace Building Agency, the National Emergency Management Agency, and international humanitarian organisations operating in the state. Recommendations include spatial early warning monitoring and strategic pre-positioning of humanitarian resources. Keywords: conflict mapping, displacement, Plateau State, geospatial analysis, ACLED.