Geospatial Intelligence for Counter-Terrorism: Spatial Pattern Analysis of Insurgent Activity and Governance Response in the Lake Chad Basin

The Lake Chad Basin insurgency involving Boko Haram and affiliated factions has generated complex spatial patterns of violence, displacement, territorial control, and humanitarian access restriction that remain incompletely characterised through quantitative spatial analytical frameworks, limiting the effectiveness of both military response planning and civilian protection governance. This dissertation applies advanced geospatial intelligence methodologies to analyse insurgent activity spatial patterns and governance response effectiveness across the Lake Chad Basin, with primary focus on the Nigerian sector in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States, making original contributions at the intersection of geomatics, conflict studies, and security governance theory. An original geo-referenced conflict event database integrating ACLED, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, UNOCHA humanitarian reports, and satellite-derived settlement destruction indicators is constructed for the period 2015 to 2024 at sub-LGA resolution. Space-time scan statistics and Bayesian spatial-temporal point process models are developed and applied to characterise insurgency spatial dynamics, territorial expansion and contraction cycles, and tactical location choice patterns. The dissertation introduces the Governance Spatial Reach Index, operationalising government service and security presence penetration into conflict-affected zones through geospatial proxies. Spatial interaction modelling examines the relationship between governance reach, humanitarian access, and civilian displacement flows. Original contributions include the first long-term, fine-resolution spatial analysis of Lake Chad Basin insurgency patterns and the Governance Spatial Reach Index as a novel geospatial governance measurement construct. Keywords: geospatial intelligence, insurgency, Lake Chad Basin, conflict analysis, governance.