Identification and Characterisation of Novel Bat-Origin Paramyxoviruses in North West Nigeria with Zoonotic Potential Assessment

Bat paramyxoviruses are an ecologically diverse group that includes the progenitors of Hendra, Nipah, and related zoonotic viruses, some of which cause fatal encephalitic disease in humans. North West Nigeria harbours diverse fruit bat and insectivorous bat populations, yet paramyxovirus discovery in this region has not been attempted. This study identifies and characterises novel bat-associated paramyxoviruses in Zamfara, Katsina, and Kebbi states, North West Nigeria, and conducts computational zoonotic potential assessment. Over three seasonal trapping campaigns, 600 bats representing 10 target species will be sampled across cave, orchard, and peri-urban roost sites. Respiratory tract swabs, faecal samples, and urine will undergo pan-paramyxovirus RT-PCR with degenerate L gene primers, and positive samples will be subjected to full-genome next-generation sequencing using Oxford Nanopore Technology. Phylogenetic analysis will place novel viruses within paramyxovirus genera and assess relatedness to known human-pathogenic paramyxoviruses. Receptor binding protein sequences will be modelled using AlphaFold2 and docked against human, pig, and horse ephrin receptor homologues to predict host range. Recombination scanning and molecular clock analysis will characterise evolutionary rates. A composite zoonotic risk scoring algorithm, incorporating receptor compatibility, seroprevalence in adjacent communities, and geographical overlap with high-density human habitation, will produce a quantitative spillover risk estimate. This study advances an original computational-experimental framework for paramyxovirus emergence risk assessment in West Africa. Keywords: bat paramyxoviruses, novel virus discovery, zoonotic potential, North West Nigeria, spillover risk