Illicit Arms Trafficking and Forensic Ballistics: Patterns Across the North West-North Central Corridor

The trafficking of illicit small arms across Nigeria's North West and North Central geopolitical zones fuels communal violence, banditry, and organised crime, generating forensic challenges that demand systematic ballistic intelligence analysis. This study empirically examines illicit arms trafficking patterns and forensic ballistic evidence across the North West-North Central corridor using data from 2020 to 2024. A multi-site analytical design was employed, drawing on forensic examination records of 310 seized firearms from the police and military armament databases across Niger, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kaduna States, supplemented by interviews with twelve armament forensic examiners and intelligence analysts. The study applies ballistic signature analysis and weapon type frequency data to identify trafficking pattern indicators and weapon origin characteristics. Findings reveal a predominance of locally fabricated firearms in rural conflict zones, constituting sixty-one percent of seized weapons, alongside a significant proportion of military-grade weapons diverted from neighbouring conflict zones. Ballistic linking across incidents was possible in forty-two percent of cases where both firearm and cartridge case exhibits were available, demonstrating meaningful potential for cross-incident intelligence development. Recommendations include the creation of a National Ballistic Intelligence Database integrating data from across the North West and North Central zones, procurement of automated ballistic identification system technology, and strengthened border forensic surveillance. Keywords: illicit arms, ballistic forensics, North West Nigeria, trafficking patterns, ballistic intelligence.