Impact of Naira Depreciation on Import Supply Chains in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Evidence from Oyo State

This study examines the impact of naira depreciation on import supply chains in the pharmaceutical industry, with evidence drawn from Oyo State, South West Nigeria. The Nigerian pharmaceutical sector relies heavily on imported active pharmaceutical ingredients, finished medicines, and packaging materials, making it particularly vulnerable to exchange rate volatility. The significant depreciation of the naira since 2022 has compounded import costs and introduced uncertainty into procurement planning cycles. Using a descriptive survey design, structured questionnaires were administered to 70 procurement managers, import logistics officers, and supply chain directors in pharmaceutical distribution and manufacturing firms registered in Oyo State. The study measures changes in import cost structure, lead time variability, supplier relationship stability, and inventory buffer adjustments attributable to exchange rate fluctuations. Descriptive statistics and simple regression analysis are used to quantify the relationship between naira depreciation rates and key supply chain cost variables. The study draws on recent currency risk and pharmaceutical supply chain literature from developing country contexts. Findings are expected to show that import cost escalation has led to reduced order frequencies, increased safety stock, and substitution of some imported inputs with locally available alternatives where feasible. Recommendations address the Central Bank of Nigeria, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control, and pharmaceutical firms on hedging strategies, local raw material sourcing incentives, and foreign exchange policy coordination. Keywords: naira depreciation, import supply chain, pharmaceutical industry, Oyo State, exchange rate.