Information Disorder and Democratic Dysfunction: A Systemic Theory from the Nigerian Experience

This study develops a systemic theory of information disorder and its relationship to democratic dysfunction, grounded in the Nigerian experience as one of the world's most acute cases of politically consequential misinformation. While misinformation research has generated important partial theories about individual pieces of the information disorder puzzle, including diffusion mechanisms, cognitive vulnerability, and platform amplification, a systemic theory that integrates these components into an account of how information disorder shapes democratic outcomes at the societal level is absent. This study employs a theoretically ambitious multi-method design across five phases: systematic review and synthesis of existing misinformation theory (Phase 1), secondary analysis of six national surveys on information exposure and democratic attitudes (Phase 2), three years of longitudinal computational analysis of information disorder dynamics across Nigerian social media (Phase 3), 40 in-depth interviews with key informants including misinformation researchers, electoral commission officials, civil society leaders, and social media investigators (Phase 4), and formal theory construction through case comparison and expert theoretical panel validation (Phase 5). The theoretical contribution integrates information environment, cognitive, social, platform, and institutional levels of analysis into a coherent systemic model. Findings support an original Systemic Information Disorder Theory that explains how information disorder undermines democratic deliberation, electoral integrity, policy legitimacy, and institutional trust through six interconnected pathways. The theory generates novel predictions about conditions under which information disorder causes democratic regression versus resilience. The study recommends systemic democratic communication infrastructure investment as a priority for Nigeria's democratic consolidation.

Keywords: information disorder, democratic dysfunction, misinformation theory, Nigeria, systemic theory.