Investigating the Effect of Perceived Destination Risk on Travel Intentions Among Nigerian Domestic Tourists: A North East Focus

This study investigates the effect of perceived destination risk on domestic travel intentions, with a specific focus on tourism destinations in North East Nigeria, a region that has experienced significant security disruptions in recent years. Understanding how risk perceptions shape travel behaviour is critical for designing effective destination recovery and marketing strategies in post-conflict and insecurity-affected regions. A quantitative research design is adopted with questionnaires administered to 300 potential domestic travellers in Abuja and Lagos, who are treated as representative of Nigeria's primary domestic travel market. An extended Theory of Planned Behaviour model incorporating perceived risk as an additional construct is applied. Structural equation modelling is used to test the influence of perceived physical risk, financial risk, and social risk on travel intentions towards North East destinations. Findings reveal that perceived physical risk exerts the strongest negative effect on travel intentions, while social risk, defined as the anticipated disapproval of peers for choosing a risky destination, also significantly depresses intentions. Information availability about destination safety is found to moderate the relationship between perceived risk and intentions, with high information availability reducing perceived risk by a statistically significant margin. The study recommends evidence-based safety information campaigns targeting domestic tourists, government travel advisory reform to better differentiate safe areas within broad geographic risk categories, and trust-building through verified community tourism testimonials. Keywords: destination risk, travel intentions, North East Nigeria, domestic tourism, perceived risk