Investigating the Relationship Between Road Transport Investment and Poverty Reduction in Rural North East Nigeria

Rural road investment is widely theorised as a poverty reduction mechanism, but the empirical evidence linking transport investment to household poverty outcomes in conflict-affected rural environments in Northern Nigeria remains thin. This study investigates the relationship between road transport investment and poverty reduction across rural local government areas in Adamawa and Gombe states, North East Nigeria. Using a quasi-experimental design that exploits variation in road rehabilitation investments under the Rural Access and Mobility Project, the study compares household welfare outcomes between communities with and without road rehabilitation using propensity score matching on pre-intervention characteristics. Outcome indicators include household consumption expenditure, market access indices, agricultural income, and school attendance rates, drawn from a panel dataset of 480 households surveyed before and after road rehabilitation. Findings show significant positive effects of road rehabilitation on agricultural income (17 percent increase) and market access index scores, with effects concentrated in the first three years post-rehabilitation. School attendance improvements are observed predominantly for female children, consistent with evidence from other sub-Saharan African settings. Effects on household consumption expenditure are positive but more modest, suggesting mediating constraints including insecurity and market structure limitations. The study contributes to the sparse empirical literature on transport-poverty linkages in conflict-affected Northern Nigerian communities and provides design guidance for future rural road investment programmes. Keywords: rural roads, poverty reduction, North East Nigeria, quasi-experiment, transport investment.