Investigation into Tender Price Fluctuations in Road Construction Projects in Ogun State

Tender price fluctuations in road construction projects present significant challenges to project budgeting, public expenditure management, and contractor profitability in Nigeria. This study investigates the causes and implications of tender price fluctuations in road construction projects in Ogun State, covering contract awards by the Ogun State Public Works Agency between 2021 and 2024. A descriptive research design was used, with data collected from 75 quantity surveyors, contractors, and government procurement officers through structured questionnaires. Data analysis involved the use of relative importance index and multiple regression analysis. Findings indicate that foreign exchange volatility, diesel price instability, supplier monopolies, and inadequate soil investigation reports are the principal drivers of fluctuating tender prices. The study observes that firm-price contracts without price adjustment clauses expose contractors to unbearable financial risks, leading to project abandonment or quality compromise. The research recommends adoption of the Nigerian National Building Code's price fluctuation formula for all road contracts exceeding 12 months, improved geotechnical data sharing, and the use of contract price adjustment clauses tied to official commodity indices. Government agencies are advised to improve cost data repositories to provide reliable benchmarks for estimating. This study fills an important knowledge gap regarding road construction cost dynamics in the South West geopolitical zone. Keywords: tender price fluctuation, road construction, Ogun State, price adjustment, cost estimation