Long-Term Functional and Radiological Outcomes of Nonoperative Management of Paediatric Lateral Condyle Fractures of the Humerus at Tertiary Hospitals in Lagos

Lateral condyle fractures of the humerus in children are the second most common paediatric elbow fracture and carry specific risks of non-union, lateral condyle overgrowth, and tardy ulnar nerve palsy when suboptimally managed. The role of nonoperative management for select displacement grades remains debated. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study evaluates the long-term functional and radiological outcomes of nonoperative management of lateral condyle fractures classified as Milch type I and Jakob stage I and II in children under twelve years at two tertiary hospitals in Lagos, South West Nigeria, with a minimum five-year follow-up. Clinical records and long-term follow-up assessments will document elbow range of motion, carrying angle, clinical deformity, radiological union, lateral condyle overgrowth, and any late complications including tardy ulnar nerve palsy. The Flynn criteria will be used for functional classification. Kaplan-Meier analysis will estimate complication-free survival at five years. The study hypothesises that Jakob stage I fractures achieve consistently good outcomes with cast immobilisation alone, while stage II fractures demonstrate a higher complication rate. Findings will inform a locally validated management algorithm for paediatric lateral condyle fractures. Keywords: lateral condyle fracture, paediatric elbow, nonoperative management, Jakob classification, Lagos.