Longitudinal Dynamics of Antimicrobial Resistance Gene Transmission in Human, Animal, and Environmental Compartments Across a One Health Continuum in North Central Nigeria

Antimicrobial resistance represents a quintessential One Health problem, with resistance genes traversing human, animal, and environmental reservoirs through complex ecological and epidemiological pathways that current surveillance frameworks inadequately capture. This research investigates the longitudinal dynamics of antimicrobial resistance gene transmission across human clinical, livestock, and environmental water compartments in Benue and Nasarawa States, North Central Nigeria, over a 24-month period. A prospective cohort design will collect quarterly samples from 200 hospitalised patients, 300 livestock in farming communities, and wastewater and river water samples from 20 sampling sites. Shotgun metagenomics and culture-based resistome profiling will characterise ARG abundance, diversity, and mobile genetic element association across compartments. Phylogenomic analysis of shared resistance plasmids will trace inter-compartmental transfer events. Network analysis will quantify transmission directionality and identify hub sites. Temporal modelling will characterise seasonal and antibiotic use-driven ARG dynamics. The theoretical framework integrates ecological niche theory and One Health epidemiology to produce a conceptual model of AMR transmission applicable to West African agropastoral communities. Original contributions include the first longitudinal metagenomic One Health AMR study in Nigeria's Middle Belt region, identification of priority intervention sites in the transmission network, and development of a spatiotemporal risk mapping tool. Findings will directly inform National AMR Action Plan implementation strategies and One Health AMR surveillance architecture for Nigeria. Keywords: One Health, antimicrobial resistance, metagenomics, resistome, transmission dynamics