Longitudinal Trends in Non-Communicable Disease Incidence at a Family Medicine Clinic in Abuja: A 10-Year Retrospective Analysis

Background: Understanding longitudinal trends in non-communicable disease incidence at primary care level provides evidence for health system planning and targeted prevention. This study analyses a decade of non-communicable disease incidence trends at a family medicine clinic in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Methods: A retrospective longitudinal analysis reviewed electronic medical records from 2014 to 2023 at the family medicine department of National Hospital Abuja. Trends in incidence of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, stroke, dyslipidaemia, and chronic kidney disease were extracted and analysed using joinpoint regression to identify statistically significant trend inflection points. Results: Incidence of hypertension and type 2 diabetes showed significant upward trends across the decade. A notable acceleration in type 2 diabetes incidence was observed from 2020 onward, coinciding with pandemic-related disruptions to physical activity and dietary patterns. Chronic kidney disease incidence increased sharply among patients with concurrent hypertension and diabetes. Conclusion: A decade-long increase in non-communicable disease incidence at this family medicine clinic in Abuja reflects national epidemiological transition trends. Family medicine departments should use incidence trend data to inform annual prevention programme planning and resource allocation decisions. Keywords: non-communicable diseases, incidence trends, family medicine, Abuja, retrospective analysis