Mathematical Modelling of Energy Consumption Patterns in Commercial Buildings in Abuja

This study develops and applies mathematical models of energy consumption in commercial office buildings in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, with the objective of identifying the principal determinants of energy demand and evaluating the potential of energy efficiency interventions in reducing operational costs and carbon emissions. Commercial buildings in Abuja account for a disproportionate share of grid electricity consumption relative to their number, driven by heavy reliance on air conditioning, artificial lighting, and diesel generators to compensate for unreliable grid supply. Energy audit data including electrical sub-metering records, equipment inventories, occupancy schedules, and utility billing history are collected from twelve commercial office buildings in the Central Business District and Wuse Zone 5 over a six-month monitoring period. Multiple regression models are estimated to disaggregate electricity demand by end use, and degree-day methods are applied to model heating and cooling loads as functions of ambient temperature. Dynamic simulation models developed in the EnergyPlus software environment are used to evaluate the projected energy savings from installing energy-efficient cooling systems, LED lighting retrofits, and building envelope insulation. Results indicate that cooling systems account for 54 percent of total measured electricity demand, and that energy-efficient cooling retrofits offer the highest return on investment among evaluated options. Mathematical optimisation is applied to prioritise interventions under capital expenditure constraints. Keywords: energy consumption, mathematical modelling, building energy efficiency, commercial buildings, Abuja