Modeling the Spillover Risk of Bat-Borne Viruses to Livestock and Humans in the South South Geopolitical Zone of Nigeria

Bats are reservoir hosts for numerous high-consequence viruses with documented spillover potential to livestock and humans, including Ebola, Marburg, and Nipah. The South South geopolitical zone of Nigeria combines high bat diversity with dense human-livestock-wildlife interfaces. This study modeled the spillover risk of bat-borne viruses to livestock and humans in Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, and Rivers States. A multi-component methodology was employed combining ecological niche modeling of bat roosting sites, serological surveys in 150 farmers and 200 livestock in bat-dense communities, next-generation sequencing of novel virus detection from bat guano and blood at 12 sampling sites, and agent-based risk modeling. Ecological niche modeling identified significant overlap between high bat density zones and farming communities. Serological evidence of exposure to filovirus-related antigens was detected in 8.7% of farmers and 6.4% of cattle from interface communities. Novel betacoronaviruses and paramyxoviruses were identified in bat samples. Agent-based modeling estimated spillover probability under current land-use conditions at 2.4% annually per high-density interface zone, rising to 7.1% under projected deforestation scenarios. The study provides the first integrated multi-model spillover risk estimate for bat-borne viruses in South South Nigeria and contributes methodological innovation in combining ecological, epidemiological, and computational approaches. An early warning monitoring system and community-level spillover reduction protocols are proposed. Keywords: bat-borne viruses, spillover risk modeling, South South Nigeria, emerging diseases, wildlife surveillance