Modelling the Economic Multiplier Effects of International Tourism on Nigeria’s Hospitality Sector: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

This study models the economic multiplier effects of international tourism expenditure on Nigeria's hospitality and broader economy using a computable general equilibrium framework. Tourism's economic contribution to Nigeria is consistently underquantified due to the absence of a dedicated tourism satellite account, creating an evidence gap that weakens the sector's policy advocacy position. Secondary data are sourced from the Nigerian National Accounts, the Central Bank of Nigeria's balance of payments records, the Nigerian Tourism Development Corporation's visitor expenditure surveys, and the National Bureau of Statistics input-output tables for the periods 2019 to 2024. A static computable general equilibrium model with tourism as a final demand shock is calibrated using a social accounting matrix constructed from the assembled dataset. Simulation scenarios model the economic effects of a 10 percent, 25 percent, and 50 percent increase in international tourist arrivals on output, employment, household income, and government revenue across 12 economic sectors. Results indicate that a 25 percent increase in international arrivals generates a 1.4 multiplier effect on direct hospitality sector output and a 2.1 multiplier effect on total economy-wide output, with accommodation, food services, transport, and retail sectors demonstrating the highest induced expenditure linkages. The findings provide the first rigorous quantification of tourism's macroeconomic contribution in a Nigerian modelling context. Recommendations for the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission and tourism sector stakeholders are grounded in the multiplier estimates. Keywords: economic multiplier, computable general equilibrium, international tourism, Nigeria, hospitality economy