📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
Nigeria's birth dose hepatitis B vaccination programme and three-dose infant HBV vaccination schedule have the potential to dramatically reduce HBV incidence and long-term liver cancer burden, but the quantitative impact in North Central Nigeria, where HBV prevalence is high and vaccination coverage is variable, has not been modelled using a dynamic transmission framework. This study constructs and parameterises a dynamic HBV transmission model for North Central Nigeria and uses it to simulate the long-term impact of alternative vaccination coverage scenarios on HBV incidence, chronic infection prevalence, and hepatocellular carcinoma burden. An age-structured deterministic compartmental model incorporating vertical transmission, horizontal transmission, natural history of chronic infection, and cancer progression will be developed. Model parameters will be estimated from Bayesian calibration to published North Central Nigeria epidemiological datasets including antenatal HBsAg surveys, vaccination coverage data, and liver disease burden estimates. Scenario analyses will compare current coverage rates against WHO elimination thresholds (90 percent three-dose coverage and 90 percent birth dose coverage by 2030). The model will project HBV and HCC outcomes to 2050 under each scenario. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will identify the parameters with greatest impact on projected outcomes. This study contributes an original population-level mathematical modelling framework for HBV elimination planning in North Central Nigeria, providing quantitative decision-support evidence for the NPHCDA and WHO Nigeria office. Keywords: Hepatitis B, dynamic transmission model, vaccination impact, hepatocellular carcinoma, North Central Nigeria
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