Nigeria’s Role in OPEC: Energy Diplomacy and the Politics of Production Quotas

This study examines Nigeria's participation in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ framework, assessing how Nigeria manages the tension between its OPEC production quota commitments and its domestic revenue maximisation imperatives. Nigeria has periodically exceeded its OPEC quota allocations, creating diplomatic friction with cartel partners, and has faced challenges in meeting agreed production targets due to pipeline vandalism, infrastructure deterioration, and oil theft in the Niger Delta. Drawing on international regime theory and energy diplomacy frameworks, this research analyses Nigeria's OPEC engagement from 2019 to 2024, examining quota negotiations, compliance records, and Nigeria's advocacy positions within OPEC forums on issues including production flexibility and energy transition timelines. The study employs a qualitative methodology, drawing on OPEC secretariat publications, Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) reports, Ministry of Petroleum press releases, and expert interviews with oil market analysts. Findings are expected to show that Nigeria's OPEC diplomacy is shaped by a fundamental tension between short-term revenue needs and long-term cartel credibility, resulting in inconsistent compliance and diminished influence within OPEC deliberations. Recommendations address institutional reforms to improve Nigeria's OPEC quota management and strengthen its strategic voice within the cartel. Keywords: OPEC, Nigeria, energy diplomacy, production quotas, petroleum revenue.