Oceanographic Factors Influencing Artisanal Fishing Success in Ilaje, Ondo State

Artisanal fishing communities along Nigeria's coast are highly dependent on oceanographic conditions that determine fish availability, yet few studies have empirically linked environmental variability to fishing outcomes in local contexts. This study investigates the relationship between key oceanographic variables and artisanal fishing success in the Ilaje coastal communities of Ondo State, South West Nigeria, one of the densest concentrations of ocean-dependent households in Nigeria. Daily catch records from 50 fishing households are compiled over twelve months in 2024, documenting species composition, catch weight, fishing area, gear type, and trip duration. Concurrent oceanographic data including sea surface temperature, wave height, wind speed, and sea level from the Copernicus Marine Service are extracted for the corresponding coastal grid cells. Correlation and regression analyses examine the predictive power of individual and combined oceanographic variables on catch-per-unit-effort for priority species including Sardinella aurita, Pseudotolithus species, and Caranx hippos. Seasonal stratification of analyses captures contrasting dry season and rainy season fishery dynamics. Fisher knowledge surveys supplement the quantitative dataset with traditional ecological knowledge on environmental fishing indicators. Findings are expected to show that low sea surface temperatures associated with seasonal upwelling predict elevated Sardinella catches, while high wave heights reduce fishing days and lower overall catch efficiency. Recommendations for community-level climate-smart fishing advisories are proposed in consultation with the Ondo State Fisheries Agency. Keywords: artisanal fishing, oceanographic variables, Ondo State, Ilaje, fish catch prediction