Petroleum Law and Climate Justice: Assessing Nigeria’s NDC Commitments Against Upstream Sector Expansion Plans

This study critically assesses the alignment between Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) climate commitments under the Paris Agreement and the continued expansion of upstream petroleum production projected under the PIA 2021 and NNPC Limited's strategic development plans. This analytical tension between climate obligations and development ambitions is particularly acute for oil-dependent emerging economies like Nigeria. Using a combined doctrinal and policy analytical methodology, the research examines Nigeria's Updated NDC submitted in 2021, the PIA 2021's provisions on petroleum development, upstream sector production forecasts in NNPC Limited's corporate plans, and Nigeria's reporting to the UNFCCC from 2021 to 2024. Climate justice implications for oil-producing communities and vulnerable populations in northern Nigeria are evaluated using a framework drawn from environmental justice literature. Findings indicate a fundamental structural inconsistency between upstream expansion targets and the emissions reduction trajectories required by Nigeria's NDC, creating long-term legal risk under international climate law. The study recommends a statutory reconciliation mechanism requiring NDC compatibility assessments for all new upstream petroleum licences. Keywords: climate justice, NDC, petroleum law, Nigeria, upstream expansion.