Predictive Modelling of Soil Erosion Rates in the Jos Plateau Using Mathematical Functions

This study develops predictive mathematical models of soil erosion rates on the Jos Plateau, Plateau State, North Central Nigeria, integrating empirical erosion data with geophysical parameters within a quantitative modelling framework. Soil erosion is a severe environmental and agricultural challenge on the Jos Plateau, exacerbated by the steep topography, intense seasonal rainfall, overgrazing, and tin mining legacy of the region, and it threatens the long-term productivity of agricultural land and the stability of residential infrastructure in affected communities. Erosion rate data are collected from established experimental plots operated by the National Root Crops Research Institute and supplemented by remote sensing estimates derived from Landsat 8 imagery processed through the revised universal soil loss equation parameters. The revised universal soil loss equation is applied to estimate annual soil loss per unit area as a function of rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness, cover management, and support practice factors. Mathematical function fitting and multiple regression analysis are used to derive locally calibrated erosivity-erodibility relationships that improve prediction accuracy relative to default parameter values sourced from non-Nigerian contexts. Spatial mapping of predicted erosion rates across the plateau is produced and cross-validated against field-measured erosion pin data. Results identify priority intervention zones where predicted annual soil loss exceeds tolerable limits. Keywords: soil erosion, revised universal soil loss equation, Jos Plateau, predictive modelling, geophysical parameters