Predictors of Student Dropout in Secondary Schools in Adamawa State: An Educational Planning Perspective

This study identifies and analyses the predictors of student dropout in public secondary schools in Adamawa State, North East Nigeria, from an educational planning perspective. Student dropout represents one of the most pressing challenges to secondary education outcomes in Northern Nigeria, with implications for human capital development, poverty perpetuation, and gender equity. In Adamawa State, where dropout rates exceed national averages, understanding the multi-dimensional factors driving early school exit is critical for evidence-based planning. The study employs a mixed methods design combining a survey of 380 in-school and out-of-school youth, parents, and teachers with structured interviews with education planners. Logistic regression analysis and thematic analysis are used to process data. The study draws on the Student Attrition Model of Tinto and its secondary school adaptation. Findings identify poverty, long distances to school, family labour demands, insecurity, early marriage, and repeated academic failure as significant independent predictors of dropout in Adamawa State. School-level factors, including poor quality of instruction and weak pastoral care, also emerge as significant contributors. The study contributes new empirical data to the limited literature on secondary dropout in North East Nigeria and recommends a multi-pronged retention strategy encompassing conditional cash transfers, school-based mentoring, and conflict-sensitive educational planning. Keywords: student dropout, secondary education, educational planning, North East Nigeria, Adamawa State.