Regional Security Architecture and Counterterrorism Effectiveness: An Empirical Assessment of MNJTF Operations in the Lake Chad Basin

This study provides an empirical assessment of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) as a regional security architecture in the Lake Chad Basin, examining the relationship between the design features of the mechanism and its measurable counterterrorism outcomes from 2015 to 2024. Scholarly debate on African regional security has produced competing claims about the conditions under which multilateral security arrangements generate durable reductions in armed group activity. Drawing on the regional security complex theory and quantitative conflict data, this research tests the hypothesis that operational coordination quality, as reflected in joint command integration and information-sharing frequency, is positively associated with reductions in Boko Haram and ISWAP attack rates across the basin. The study employs a mixed-methods design, combining statistical analysis of conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) database with qualitative process tracing of three MNJTF operational campaigns. Data on MNJTF command structure, troop contributions, and coordination mechanisms are drawn from UN Security Council monitoring reports and the Lake Chad Basin Commission. The North East zones of Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon form the primary geographical scope. Findings are expected to demonstrate a statistically significant but contingent relationship between coordination quality and attack reduction, moderated by host state governance capacity and civilian support. The research fills an empirical gap in the African security cooperation literature. Keywords: MNJTF, counterterrorism, Lake Chad Basin, regional security, Boko Haram.