Religious Nationalism and Political Violence: Islam, Christianity, and Conflict in the Middle Belt of Nigeria, 2000 to 2023

This study empirically analyses the relationship between religious nationalism and political violence in Nigeria's Middle Belt region, encompassing Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, and Nasarawa States in the North Central geopolitical zone, between 2000 and 2023. The Middle Belt has been the site of some of Nigeria's most devastating episodes of communal violence, often described in religious terms as Christian-Muslim conflict but embedded in deeper competition over land, political representation, and ethnic identity. A mixed-methods design is employed, combining quantitative analysis of conflict incident data from ACLED and the Nextier SPD database with qualitative case analysis of four major conflict episodes including the 2001 and 2008 Jos crises, supplemented by 42 in-depth interviews with community and religious leaders, conflict researchers, and state government officials. The Religious Nationalism Theory and the Ethnic Conflict Theory by Horowitz provide the dual analytical framework. Findings challenge the popular religious framing of Middle Belt violence, demonstrating empirically that conflict incidents are more strongly correlated with land use competition and political elite mobilisation variables than with measures of religious difference per se. Religion functions as an identity amplifier and mobilisation resource rather than as an autonomous driver of conflict. Keywords: religious nationalism, political violence, Middle Belt, Nigeria, Christian-Muslim conflict.