Socioecological Resilience of Riverine Fishing Communities to Hydrological Variability in Kogi State

This study assessed the socioecological resilience of riverine fishing communities in Kogi State, North Central Nigeria, to hydrological variability, including flooding, droughts, and unpredictable seasonal river flow patterns. Kogi State sits at the confluence of the Niger and Benue rivers, making its fishing communities particularly exposed to hydrological extremes. The study applied a resilience analysis framework drawing on livelihood capital assessments and adaptive capacity indicators, combined with ecological monitoring of river flow and fish community responses. Structured interviews were conducted with 110 fishing households in six communities, supplemented by 10 years of discharge records from the Hydrological Services Area in Lokoja. Resilience dimensions assessed included absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and transformative capacity at both household and community levels. Results indicated that communities with diversified livelihood strategies demonstrated significantly higher resilience scores, absorbing flood and drought shocks with fewer permanent losses. Social capital, measured through cooperative membership and mutual support networks, was a significant predictor of community-level resilience. Ecological monitoring showed that fish catch biomass declined by 41 percent during the 2022 extreme flood event and had only partially recovered two years later, indicating limited ecological resilience following severe disturbance. Communities with active co-management arrangements with state fisheries authorities recovered more quickly from disruptions. The study identifies key leverage points for building resilience, including diversification incentives, flood early warning system access, and co-management formalisation, and recommends their integration into Kogi State fisheries and disaster risk management planning frameworks. Keywords: socioecological resilience, hydrological variability, fishing communities, Kogi State, adaptive capacity