Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Creditor Coordination, and Macroeconomic Recovery: Implications for Nigeria

Sovereign debt restructuring is one of the most consequential and theoretically complex events in international public finance, involving collective action problems among heterogeneous creditors, strategic interactions between debtor governments and international financial institutions, and significant distributional and macroeconomic consequences for the restructuring country. This study develops a theoretical framework for analysing sovereign debt restructuring dynamics and applies it to assess the implications for Nigeria's debt management strategy given its evolving external debt composition. The theoretical contribution is a multi-stage game-theoretic model of sovereign debt restructuring that incorporates heterogeneous creditor types, including multilateral creditors, bilateral creditors under the G20 Common Framework, commercial bondholders, and domestic creditors, and derives conditions under which coordinated restructuring, creditor holdouts, and debt distress resolution occur. The empirical application uses a combination of structured analysis of Nigeria's debt composition and trajectory from 2015 to 2023, comparative case analysis of restructuring episodes in comparable commodity-dependent economies including Zambia and Ghana, and Monte Carlo simulation of debt sustainability under multiple macro-fiscal scenarios. Qualitative data from interviews with 15 debt management professionals in the Debt Management Office and international creditor institutions enrich the empirical analysis. The theoretical framework draws on sovereign debt theory, the collective action problem literature, and the macro-fiscal consequence modelling of debt crises. The PhD-level contribution lies in the theoretical model of multi-creditor restructuring dynamics, the original debt sustainability simulation, and the policy-relevant lessons for Nigeria's debt management. Findings are intended for the Debt Management Office, the Federal Ministry of Finance, and the international debt restructuring policy community working on emerging market debt resolution. Keywords: sovereign debt restructuring, creditor coordination, debt sustainability, Nigeria, Common Framework