Spatial Analysis of Drought Vulnerability Indicators Across the Nigerian Sahel

Drought vulnerability in Nigeria's Sahelian fringe spans the states of Borno, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi, where a convergence of climatic stress and socioeconomic fragility creates conditions of acute susceptibility to rainfall deficits. This study constructs a spatial drought vulnerability index for the Nigerian Sahel by combining meteorological, agricultural, and socioeconomic indicators using a multi-criteria geographic information system (GIS) approach. Meteorological inputs include SPI-based drought frequency maps derived from 15 years of NiMet station data, while agricultural sensitivity indicators encompass crop water requirements and irrigated area coverage sourced from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Socioeconomic sensitivity indicators such as poverty headcount, literacy rates, and access to early warning information were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics. Weighted overlay analysis in ArcGIS produced a composite vulnerability map at the local government area (LGA) scale. Results identify 34 LGAs in Yobe, Borno, and Katsina states as falling within the highest vulnerability category, driven by a combination of high drought frequency and low adaptive capacity. The spatial vulnerability map successfully validates against historical food insecurity data from the Cadre Harmonise assessments. The study recommends targeted drought resilience investments in high-vulnerability LGAs, prioritizing water harvesting infrastructure and drought-tolerant variety distribution. Keywords: drought vulnerability, Sahel, GIS, Standardized Precipitation Index, food insecurity.