Spatial Analysis of Serial Crime Patterns and Forensic Geographic Profiling in Port Harcourt

Geographic profiling as a forensic investigative support tool enables analysts to identify high-probability areas of offender anchor points based on the spatial distribution of linked crime scenes. This study applies spatial analysis and forensic geographic profiling to documented serial crime patterns in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, using cases from 2019 to 2024. An empirical analytical design was employed, extracting geocoded data from 180 linked robbery, kidnapping, and assault cases from the Rivers State Police Command, applying the Rossmo geographic profiling algorithm and kernel density estimation to identify probable offender residence zones, and validating predictions against known offender locations from twenty-four solved cases. The study assesses profiling accuracy, the spatial characteristics of crime patterns in Port Harcourt's urban environment, and the feasibility of integrating geographic profiling into routine Nigerian police investigations. Findings indicate a mean distance-to-anchor error of 1.8 kilometres across validated profiles, with accuracy notably higher in residential crime categories than in commercially motivated offences. The study identifies geographic barriers including waterways and traffic infrastructure as significant influences on offender spatial behaviour in Port Harcourt. Recommendations include the development of a GIS-based geographic profiling unit within the Rivers State Police Command, sourcing of open-source profiling software, and the provision of geospatial analysis training for investigative officers. Keywords: geographic profiling, spatial analysis, serial crime, Port Harcourt, Rivers State.