📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
Identifying geographic malaria hotspots and their environmental determinants is increasingly recognised as a prerequisite for the strategic targeting of intervention resources necessary to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination in high-burden African countries. This study maps the spatial distribution and environmental determinants of malaria hotspots in rural Katsina State, North West Nigeria using a GIS-based analytical framework. A cross-sectional analytical design was employed, integrating malaria rapid diagnostic test results from 450 febrile patients across 30 community health posts in Dutsinma, Batagarawa, and Rimi Local Government Areas. GPS coordinates of patient residences were linked to high-resolution satellite imagery layers including normalised difference vegetation index, distance to water bodies, elevation, rainfall distribution, and settlement density. Spatial clustering was identified using SaTScan software with Kulldorff spatial scan statistics. Multivariate spatial regression modelled the association between environmental covariates and malaria incidence at the community level. Evidence from 2020 to 2024 confirms that malaria hotspots in North West Nigeria cluster around irrigation schemes, seasonal rivers, and communities with high annual rainfall, providing actionable targeting criteria. This study produces a malaria risk surface map for Katsina State, providing decision-support tools for programme managers. Findings will be submitted to the Katsina State Malaria Elimination Programme and the National Malaria Elimination Programme for strategic planning. Keywords: malaria hotspots, spatial analysis, GIS, environmental determinants, Katsina State.
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