📖 ABSTRACT/OVERVIEW
Understanding the spatial dynamics of development inequality across Nigeria's 36 states and Federal Capital Territory over more than two decades provides essential empirical foundations for evaluating the effectiveness of Nigeria's federal revenue sharing formula, state-level development policies, and national poverty reduction programmes in progressively equalising or further concentrating development outcomes across geopolitical zones. This study conducts a comprehensive longitudinal spatial analysis of development inequality and regional convergence across Nigeria from 2000 to 2023 using a novel State Development Index constructed from 12 indicators spanning income, education, health, infrastructure, and environment dimensions. Annual state-level data for all 12 indicators were assembled from National Bureau of Statistics, National Population Commission, Central Bank of Nigeria, and World Bank Nigeria datasets covering the full study period. The State Development Index was computed annually, enabling time-series analysis of development trajectories for each state and geopolitical zone. Sigma and beta convergence analysis tests whether development gaps between states are narrowing or widening over time. Spatial autocorrelation analysis examines the geographic clustering of development levels and trajectories. Panel regression models with state fixed effects estimate the development effects of federal allocation, internally generated revenue, oil revenue dependence, conflict exposure, and governance quality indicators. Geographically Weighted Regression applied to the latest three years identifies spatial non-stationarity in development predictors. Results document persistent and widening inter-state development inequality over the study period, with beta divergence characterising the 2000 to 2015 sub-period and weak conditional convergence thereafter. Geographic clustering of development levels shows persistent North-South divides that are reproduced despite oil revenue redistribution through the federation account. The study makes a foundational empirical contribution to Nigerian regional development geography and provides a rigorous evidential basis for federal development policy reform. Keywords: spatial inequality, regional convergence, development geography, Nigeria, federal states.
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