Spatial Statistical Analysis of Crime Distribution and Socioeconomic Deprivation in Lagos Metropolis

This study applies spatial statistical methods to analyse the geographic distribution of violent and property crime across Lagos Metropolis and to quantify the relationship between crime concentration and measures of socioeconomic deprivation at the ward level, contributing empirical evidence to the literature on the spatial criminology of African megacities. Lagos is Africa's most populous city and hosts persistent concentrations of criminal activity in specific geographic corridors, yet rigorous spatial statistical analyses linking crime geography to socioeconomic conditions have been limited by data access constraints. Ward-level crime incidence data obtained from the Lagos State Police Command and the Lagos State Security Trust Fund, covering reported incidents of armed robbery, burglary, violent assault, and kidnapping for the period 2020 to 2023, are combined with socioeconomic deprivation indices constructed from the 2021 Nigeria Living Standards Survey and Lagos State Government administrative data. Global and local Moran's I statistics are computed to test for spatial autocorrelation in crime rates and to identify statistically significant crime hotspot clusters. Geographically weighted regression is applied to estimate spatially varying relationships between crime rates and deprivation indicators including unemployment rate, overcrowding index, educational attainment, and access to potable water. Results confirm significant positive spatial autocorrelation in violent crime and identify localised geographic clusters in Mushin, Ajegunle, and Oshodi where crime-deprivation relationships are substantially stronger than in other parts of the metropolis. Keywords: spatial statistics, crime distribution, geographically weighted regression, Lagos, socioeconomic deprivation