State Capacity and Conflict Management Outcomes in Northwest Nigeria

This study examines the relationship between state capacity dimensions and conflict management outcomes across the Northwest geopolitical zone of Nigeria, focusing on Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto states. The proliferation of armed banditry and communal violence in the Northwest has raised fundamental questions about whether state capacity deficits are primary drivers of poor conflict management performance or whether poor conflict management choices produce state capacity erosion. Using a mixed-methods research design, quantitative state capacity indicators drawn from governance datasets were cross-referenced with conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project for the period 2019 to 2024. Qualitative data were obtained through interviews with 30 government officials, security sector representatives, and civil society observers across the three study states. Panel regression analysis was employed to model the state capacity-conflict management relationship. The theoretical framework draws from state capacity theory and conflict management effectiveness frameworks. Findings confirm a significant positive relationship between state administrative capacity, fiscal resource availability, and conflict management effectiveness, with the lowest-capacity local government areas demonstrating the highest rates of conflict escalation without intervention. However, coercive capacity alone, without corresponding administrative and legitimacy capacity, does not produce sustainable conflict reduction. Recommendations include investing in integrated state capacity building programs in Northwest Nigeria, prioritising local government administrative strengthening in highest-conflict LGAs, and developing state capacity benchmarks for conflict management performance. Keywords: state capacity, conflict management, Northwest Nigeria, banditry, governance.