State Fragility and Petroleum Law Enforcement: A Theoretical Framework for the Chad Basin States of North East Nigeria

This study develops an original theoretical framework for understanding petroleum law enforcement in conditions of state fragility, drawing on empirical evidence from the Chad Basin petroleum zone traversing Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States in North East Nigeria. The North East has experienced prolonged conflict associated with the Boko Haram insurgency, severely constraining state institutional capacity and raising fundamental questions about whether petroleum law can be effectively enforced in fragile state contexts. The research employs a theory-building qualitative methodology combining process tracing, conflict political economy analysis, and fieldwork interviews with forty informants including displaced community members, security officials, NUPRC field officers, and development agency staff. Theoretical frameworks are drawn from fragile states literature, legal institutionalism, and conflict resource governance scholarship. The study constructs an original concept of attenuated regulatory sovereignty to describe the partial, contested, and variable application of petroleum law in conflict-affected zones. It theorises adaptive regulatory mechanisms appropriate for petroleum governance under fragility conditions and argues for a conflict-sensitive petroleum policy framework for Nigeria's frontier north-eastern basins. Keywords: state fragility, petroleum law enforcement, Chad Basin, North East Nigeria, conflict governance.