Strategic Myopia, Environmental Turbulence, and Firm Failure Prediction in the Nigerian Financial Sector

This dissertation develops a behavioral strategic management model of firm failure prediction for the Nigerian financial sector, with strategic myopia as the central theoretical construct. Existing firm failure prediction models are dominated by financial ratio approaches, with limited integration of behavioral and strategic management variables despite evidence that leadership cognitive failures precede financial distress. Behavioral strategy theory, upper echelons theory, and organizational failure theory provide the theoretical framework. The research employs a retrospective longitudinal design examining twenty-five Nigerian financial sector firms, of which twelve experienced regulatory intervention, license revocation, or dissolution between 2014 and 2024. Strategic myopia indices were constructed from pre-failure executive statements, strategic disclosure patterns, and board oversight records. Matched control firms provided the comparison group. Logistic regression and survival analysis were applied. Findings indicate that strategic myopia, measured through short-term orientation in capital allocation decisions, reduced competitor monitoring breadth, and neglect of regulatory relationship investment, significantly predicts firm failure twelve to eighteen months ahead of financial ratio deterioration. The study establishes that strategic myopia amplifies the firm-damaging effects of environmental turbulence, creating a compounding failure spiral. The dissertation makes original theoretical contributions to organizational failure theory by introducing the strategic myopia-turbulence failure amplification model and validating its predictive utility in the Nigerian financial services context. Keywords: strategic myopia, environmental turbulence, firm failure prediction, financial sector, Nigeria.