Supply Chain Vulnerability, Community Conflict Exposure, and Coping Mechanism Effectiveness in the Mining Sector of Plateau and Zamfara States, North Central and North West Nigeria

This dissertation examines supply chain vulnerability, community conflict exposure, and coping mechanism effectiveness in the artisanal and small-scale mining sector of Plateau and Zamfara States, which represent contrasting North Central and North West conflict-affected mining environments in Nigeria. Mining supply chains in both states face severe disruptions from farmer-herder conflicts, illegal mining-related community tensions, security force operations, and environmental degradation disputes, creating supply chain vulnerability profiles that have not been systematically theorised or empirically documented. Drawing on supply chain vulnerability theory, conflict economics, and coping strategies literature, the dissertation develops an original Conflict-Induced Supply Chain Vulnerability Framework that distinguishes primary vulnerability from conflict exposure, secondary vulnerability from governance response failure, and tertiary vulnerability from supply chain coping inadequacy. A comparative longitudinal mixed-methods design is employed, combining quantitative surveys of 180 mining supply chain operators across both states in two waves 12 months apart, with qualitative conflict event mapping, supply chain disruption diaries maintained by 40 operators, and elite interviews with 20 security, community, and government informants. Survival analysis, spatial disruption modelling, and comparative case analysis are applied. Original contributions include the Conflict-Induced Supply Chain Vulnerability Framework, a spatial supply chain disruption mapping methodology for conflict-affected mining corridors, and an original Coping Mechanism Effectiveness Index. The dissertation advances supply chain scholarship in fragile and conflict-affected sub-national contexts and provides evidence for targeted supply chain resilience interventions. Keywords: supply chain vulnerability, conflict exposure, mining sector, Plateau State, Zamfara State.