Tacitus’s Annals and the Politics of Imperial Succession: Lessons for Nigerian Presidential Transition

Tacitus's Annals is among the most penetrating analyses of the politics of imperial succession produced in antiquity, documenting the psychological dynamics, institutional weaknesses, and political violence attendant on the transfer of supreme power in early imperial Rome. This study examines the analytical utility of Tacitean models of succession politics for understanding the dynamics of Nigerian presidential transitions, focusing on the transitions of 2015, 2019, and 2023. A comparative political-historical methodology was adopted, drawing on close reading of Tacitus Annals Books I, III, and IV alongside secondary analysis of academic and journalistic accounts of Nigerian presidential transition processes, including electoral disputes, party defection dynamics, and incumbent-successor conflicts. The study also draws on interviews with five Nigerian political scientists at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria. Findings indicate that Tacitus's analysis of sycophancy, the corruption of information channels, and the role of informal networks in undermining formal constitutional succession mechanisms all map with considerable precision onto documented features of Nigerian presidential transition politics. His analysis of how a new emperor must establish authority by simultaneously honouring and marginalising his predecessor's legacy resonates with Nigerian transition discourse. The study concludes that Tacitus provides a durable framework for analysing succession politics beyond the Roman context and recommends classical political history as a resource in Nigerian political science curricula.

Keywords: Tacitus, Annals, presidential succession, Nigerian politics, classical historiography