Temperature Trend Analysis in Abuja (FCT) Over a 20-Year Period

Long-term temperature trend analysis provides essential evidence for detecting local climate change signals against the backdrop of global warming. This study investigates temperature trends in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, by analyzing maximum, minimum, and mean daily temperature records from the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport meteorological station spanning 2003 to 2022. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator were applied to identify statistically significant monotonic trends in annual and seasonal temperature series. Results demonstrate that mean annual temperature in Abuja has increased at a rate of approximately 0.035 degrees Celsius per year over the study period, with the most pronounced warming observed in minimum nighttime temperatures, consistent with patterns of urbanization-induced heat retention. Seasonal decomposition reveals that dry-season months (November through February) exhibit the steepest warming trends, while wet-season temperatures show comparatively moderate change. The study further examines possible drivers of observed warming, including urban expansion quantified through LULC analysis and increased greenhouse gas emissions at the national scale. Findings contribute to the body of evidence supporting Nigeria's National Adaptation Plan and reinforce the importance of long-term instrumental records for climate science. Recommendations include formalization of a digital archive for all FCT meteorological records and integration of urban climate monitoring within Abuja's masterplan review processes. Keywords: temperature trend, Mann-Kendall, Abuja, climate change, urbanization.