The Effectiveness of International Sanctions as a Tool of Nigerian Foreign Policy: Evidence from West Africa

This study empirically examines the effectiveness of international sanctions imposed by or supported by Nigeria, particularly within ECOWAS frameworks, in achieving their stated objectives of democratic restoration, conflict resolution, and norm enforcement in West Africa. Sanctions have been deployed by ECOWAS with Nigeria's leadership in response to political crises in The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with varying outcomes. Drawing on sanctions effectiveness theory and coercive diplomacy frameworks, this research analyses the design, implementation, and outcomes of five ECOWAS sanction episodes involving Nigerian diplomatic leadership from 2017 to 2024, assessing the conditions under which sanctions succeeded or failed in producing targeted behavioural change. The study employs a structured case comparison methodology, drawing on ECOWAS sanction documentation, UN Panel of Experts reports, diplomatic memoirs, and secondary academic literature on each case. Quantitative trade and economic impact data supplement the qualitative case analysis. Findings are expected to reveal that sanction effectiveness is contingent on coalition coherence, target state economic integration with ECOWAS, and the credibility of Nigeria's threat to maintain pressure over time, with recent cases showing declining effectiveness as Sahel solidarity norms erode coalition unity. The study contributes to the empirical literature on African sanction diplomacy. Keywords: sanctions, ECOWAS, Nigeria, coercive diplomacy, West Africa.