The Hydro-Social Cycle and Water Governance Transformation in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: A Critical Realist Investigation

The hydro-social cycle framework, which conceptualises water as simultaneously a physical substance and a social product co-constituted through governance arrangements, cultural meanings, and power relations, has generated influential insights in water governance scholarship but has not been rigorously applied to West African contexts characterised by contested river basin development and rapid social transformation. This doctoral research applies critical realist social science methodology to investigate hydro-social cycle dynamics and water governance transformation in two major river basin systems of Nigeria's Middle Belt: the Benue River and the Kaduna River. The critical realist approach enables identification of underlying generative mechanisms that produce observed water governance outcomes, moving beyond descriptive documentation to causal explanation. Research methods include 24 months of institutional ethnography across governance arenas from village water committees to the Benue River Basin Development Authority, 95 in-depth interviews, documentary analysis of basin development histories, biophysical hydrological analysis of flow regime changes, and participatory hydro-social mapping with 15 community groups. The investigation reveals three generative mechanisms driving water governance transformation: commodification pressure from agricultural capital expansion, hydroclimatic stress amplifying existing governance inequalities, and counter-movement by customary water rights holders asserting hydro-social claims. Original theoretical contributions extend the hydro-social cycle framework to accommodate non-Western ontologies of water prevalent in Middle Belt communities and develop a critical realist methodology for hydro-social research applicable across the global South. Practical contributions address governance design principles for contested river basin management and IWRM implementation in Nigerian federal settings. Keywords: hydro-social cycle, water governance, critical realism, river basin management, Middle Belt Nigeria.