The Impact of Insecurity on Tourism Destination Image and Investment Flows in Northern Nigeria: A Mixed-Method Longitudinal Study

This study examines the impact of insecurity on tourism destination image and foreign tourism investment flows in northern Nigeria across a ten-year longitudinal period from 2014 to 2024, addressing a critical gap in the literature on security-induced destination decline and recovery in fragile state contexts. The Boko Haram insurgency and subsequent security deterioration across the North East and parts of the North West geopolitical zones have had profound but poorly quantified effects on both domestic and international tourism activity and investment decisions. A mixed-method longitudinal design is adopted combining secondary data analysis of tourism arrival statistics, hotel investment records, and foreign direct investment data from the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission with three waves of in-depth interviews conducted in 2016, 2020, and 2024 with tourism investors, hotel operators, government officials, and aid organisation representatives across Borno, Adamawa, Yobe, Kano, and Kaduna states. Destination image measurement utilises a longitudinal perceptual mapping technique applied to international tour operator catalogues and travel advisory databases. Findings reveal that destination image recovery lags physical security improvements by an average of three to four years, creating a sustained investment deterrence effect. Foreign tourism investment shows a slower recovery trajectory than domestic hotel investment, with risk-averse institutional capital remaining largely absent even after security conditions improve. The study develops a Northern Nigeria Tourism Recovery Model specifying sequenced intervention priorities across security, image, infrastructure, and investment facilitation domains. Keywords: insecurity, destination image, tourism investment, northern Nigeria, conflict recovery