The Nexus Between Urban Morphology and Urban Heat Island Intensity in Nigerian Tropical Cities: Developing a Predictive Framework

Urban morphology and the physical form of cities are theorized as primary determinants of urban heat island intensity, but the morphology-heat relationship has rarely been empirically validated and theoretically synthesized for humid tropical West African urban contexts. This study develops a predictive framework for urban heat island intensity based on urban morphology indicators in Nigerian tropical cities, making original empirical and theoretical contributions to the understudied intersection of urban climate science and planning. The research employs high-resolution satellite thermal imagery, LiDAR-derived building morphology data, and ground-based meteorological measurements in Lagos, Kano, and Ibadan, representing different climatic sub-zones within Nigeria's tropical climate envelope. Morphological variables including sky view factor, building height-to-street width ratio, green coverage ratio, impervious surface fraction, and urban block permeability are derived and correlated with measured surface and ambient heat island intensity using spatial regression and machine learning ensemble models. An extensive field measurement campaign involving 90 measurement points per city over two full annual cycles provides a robust thermal dataset. Original findings are expected to demonstrate city-specific morphological thresholds for heat island mitigation effectiveness, challenging the universal application of compact city theory to humid tropical contexts. The predictive framework generates planning guidance for thermal-sensitive urban morphology standards in Nigerian cities. Recommendations contribute to planning theory by incorporating tropical climate science into urban form normative frameworks, with direct application to master plan development and building regulation standards. Keywords: Urban morphology, Urban heat island, Tropical cities, Nigeria, Predictive framework.