The Political Economy of Public Bureaucracy Reform in Nigeria: A Historical-Institutionalist Analysis, 1999-2024

This dissertation provides an original historical-institutionalist analysis of public bureaucracy reform in Nigeria's Fourth Republic from 1999 to 2024, arguing that the recurring failure of reform initiatives cannot be adequately explained by technical implementation deficiencies but requires analysis of the deeply embedded political economy of Nigeria's federal bureaucracy. Drawing on primary archival sources, 80 elite interviews with former and serving ministers, permanent secretaries, civil society reform champions, and international development partners, and secondary analysis of reform evaluation reports, the study applies Historical Institutionalism and Path Dependence Theory to examine how colonial-era bureaucratic legacies, rent-seeking networks, and executive-legislative bargaining dynamics have produced self-reinforcing cycles of reform adoption and reversal. The dissertation employs process tracing methodology to reconstruct causal mechanisms linking political economy variables to reform outcomes in four major reform cycles: the Obasanjo monetisation reforms, the Yar'Adua service delivery initiative, the Jonathan e-government drive, and the Buhari civil service rationalisation programme. Findings establish that reforms achieving durable institutionalisation share three common features: external enforcement mechanisms, civil society coalitions with sustained reform advocacy, and insulation of reform processes from electoral cycle pressures. Reforms aligned with redistributive rent structures systematically survived while efficiency-oriented reforms were reversed. The dissertation makes an original contribution to the comparative public administration literature on bureaucracy reform in post-colonial federations, offering a political economy framework transferable to similar contexts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords: bureaucracy reform, political economy, historical institutionalism, Nigeria, path dependence.