The Transformation of Hausa-Fulani Political Identity in the Fourth Republic, 1999 to 2023

This study empirically analyses the transformation of Hausa-Fulani political identity and its implications for Nigerian democratic politics in the Fourth Republic from 1999 to 2023, addressing a significant gap in the quantitative and qualitative literature on ethnic identity and political behaviour in Northern Nigeria. The Hausa-Fulani political identity, historically anchored in the Sokoto Caliphate governance tradition and the Northern People's Congress political legacy, has been subjected to significant internal pressures from religious radicalisation, inter-ethnic tensions with Middle Belt communities, economic marginalisation, and generational identity shifts. A mixed-methods design is employed, combining a panel survey of 450 Northern Nigerian adult respondents tracked across two election cycles with qualitative analysis of 40 elite interviews with Northern politicians, scholars, and religious leaders from Kano, Sokoto, and Kaduna States. Structural equation modelling and discourse analysis serve as the primary analytical tools. The Ethnic Identity and Political Behaviour Theory and the Social Construction of Identity Framework provide the theoretical anchors. Findings reveal a significant fracturing of monolithic Hausa-Fulani political identity, with growing intra-Northern divisions between elite and non-elite, urban and rural, and religiously conservative and reform-oriented constituencies that are reshaping Northern political alliances and voting patterns. Keywords: Hausa-Fulani, political identity, Fourth Republic, Northern Nigeria, ethnic politics.