Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of Natural Gas Geopolitics and Nigeria’s Strategic Gas Export Diplomacy in West Africa

Nigeria's position as West Africa's dominant natural gas producer gives it a unique geopolitical leverage in regional energy relations, yet the academic literature has insufficiently theorised the strategic dynamics of Nigeria's gas export diplomacy and its relationship with national energy security and foreign policy objectives. This study develops and tests a theoretical framework for understanding natural gas geopolitics in West Africa, with Nigeria as the central actor, drawing on international relations theory, energy security theory, and political economy of natural resource frameworks. The theoretical model conceptualises Nigerian gas export diplomacy as a multi-level strategic interaction involving domestic political economy constraints, bilateral gas supply relationships, and multilateral regional energy integration frameworks. Empirical testing employs a structured focused comparison methodology across four bilateral gas relationship cases: Nigeria-Ghana (West African Gas Pipeline), Nigeria-Togo and Benin (WAGP transit), Nigeria-Morocco (NMGPP pipeline project), and Nigeria-ECOWAS multilateral gas policy engagements. Primary empirical data are generated from 40 elite interviews with Nigerian gas diplomacy officials, ECOWAS energy secretariat staff, and receiving country energy ministry representatives. The study's original theoretical contribution is a Gas Diplomacy Power Index (GDPI) for resource-rich developing countries, operationalising export market concentration, infrastructure lock-in effects, and pricing leverage into a composite measure. Empirical findings reveal that Nigeria's gas diplomacy has been primarily reactive and commercially driven rather than strategically proactive, ceding potential diplomatic leverage to Chinese infrastructure financing initiatives in transit countries. Recommendations include a national gas export strategy integrating geopolitical and commercial objectives, and a regional gas diplomacy coordination mechanism within the Ministry of Petroleum Resources. Keywords: gas geopolitics, export diplomacy, West Africa, energy security, WAGP.