Theoretical Framework for Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control in Nigerian Industrial Zones: A Multivariate Geochemical and Policy Modelling Approach

The absence of a coherent, evidence-based integrated pollution prevention and control framework tailored to the institutional and geochemical realities of Nigerian industrial zones represents a critical gap in environmental governance that existing international frameworks, designed primarily for high-income regulatory systems, cannot adequately fill. This study develops an original theoretical framework for integrated pollution prevention and control applicable to Nigerian industrial zones, using the Aba-Nnewi-Onitsha industrial corridor of South East Nigeria as a case territory. The framework is constructed through three interacting methodological pillars: systematic multivariate geochemical characterisation of air, water, soil, and biota across the corridor using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analytical platforms; institutional analysis of regulatory enforcement capacity using a novel Pollution Governance Capacity Index developed from primary data on agency staffing, laboratory infrastructure, legislative instruments, and enforcement action records; and integrated multimedia fate and transport modelling using the CalTOX and TRIM models to predict pollutant exposure concentrations across receptor populations under current and improved regulatory scenarios. A novel Pollution Prevention Priority Matrix is developed from the combined geochemical and institutional data to rank emission sources by environmental impact and regulatory tractability. The framework is subjected to expert validation through a structured Delphi process involving environmental chemists, legal experts, and regulatory officers across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Outputs include a replicable framework applicable beyond the study territory and a set of geopolitically contextualised policy recommendations for Nigeria's National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency. Keywords: integrated pollution prevention, industrial zones, theoretical framework, geochemical modelling, Nigeria