Theoretical Framework for Molecular Surveillance Networks in Nigeria: Integrating Genomic Epidemiology, One Health, and Digital Epidemiology Paradigms

Molecular surveillance networks capable of rapid detection and characterization of emerging pathogens represent the cornerstone of pandemic preparedness architectures. Nigeria's existing surveillance infrastructure is fragmented across human, animal, and environmental health sectors, limiting integrated genomic intelligence generation. This dissertation develops an original theoretical framework for molecular surveillance network architecture in Nigeria, synthesizing genomic epidemiology, One Health, and digital epidemiology theoretical traditions into a unified systems model. Through systematic literature review, comparative analysis of molecular surveillance systems in six African countries, and primary qualitative fieldwork across all six Nigerian geopolitical zones involving 90 key informant interviews with genomic scientists, epidemiologists, veterinary officers, and policymakers, a multi-level framework is constructed. The framework proposes three structural tiers: a national genomic reference hub, six zonal genomic sentinel nodes, and federated state-level molecular diagnostic spokes. Original contributions include a novel pathogen genomic data governance model specific to the Nigerian federal health architecture, an adapted One Health molecular interface protocol for zoonotic spillover surveillance, and a digital epidemiology integration layer connecting genomic platforms with existing national disease notification systems (SORMAS, IDSR). The framework was evaluated against five historical Nigerian outbreak scenarios using counterfactual retrospective modeling. Simulations indicate that the proposed framework would have reduced mean time to pathogen characterization by 14 days across evaluated outbreaks. This theoretical contribution provides a nationally applicable blueprint for building a resilient genomic surveillance ecosystem. Keywords: molecular surveillance, genomic epidemiology, One Health, pandemic preparedness, Nigeria.