Theorising Nigerian State Capacity in Managing Chinese Infrastructure Investment: Governance Hybridity and Institutional Voids

The management of Chinese infrastructure investment by Nigerian state institutions reveals significant governance challenges that existing state capacity frameworks, derived from developed country institutional contexts, inadequately theorise. This study develops an original theoretical framework for understanding Nigerian state capacity to govern Chinese infrastructure investment, drawing on governance hybridity theory, institutional economics, and African state theory. The theoretical framework is constructed through an extended case study methodology applied to four major Chinese infrastructure investment projects: the Abuja-Kaduna railway, the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, the Lekki Deep Sea Port, and the Mambilla hydroelectric project. Each case is examined through analysis of project documentation, freedom of information requests, structured interviews with 15 Nigerian government officials per case, and interviews with Chinese project company representatives and civil society monitors. An original Governance Hybridity Model for Chinese Investment Management is developed, theorising how Nigerian state capacity is not simply weak or strong but is hybridised across formal-informal, federal-state, and indigenous-exogenous institutional registers. Three original concepts are introduced: capacity displacement (where Chinese firm operational capacity substitutes for absent Nigerian institutional capacity), regulatory shadow (where Chinese firms exploit ambiguity in Nigerian regulatory frameworks), and incremental institutionalisation (where Nigerian capacity develops through repeated Chinese project cycles). The theoretical model provides a more nuanced understanding of African state capacity challenges than deficit-centred approaches.

Keywords: Nigerian state capacity, Chinese infrastructure, governance hybridity, institutional voids, original theory