Theorizing Failure in Nigerian TVET Reform: Path Dependency, Institutional Inertia, and Reform Traps

This study theorized the recurrent failure of Nigerian TVET reform initiatives through the theoretical lenses of path dependency, institutional inertia, and reform trap theory. Despite more than a dozen major national TVET reform initiatives since independence, Nigerian TVET institutions remain systemically underperforming, suggesting that reform failure is not incidental but structurally embedded. The study employed a historical institutionalist methodology combining archival analysis of 60 years of TVET policy documents, secondary analysis of reform evaluation reports from the Federal Ministry of Education and development partners, and 70 elite interviews with current and former policymakers, administrators, and reform architects across federal and six state governments. Event sequence analysis and comparative historical analysis were applied. Findings identified four structural reform traps: the colonial legacy trap, in which inherited institutional designs resist transformation; the electoral cycle trap, in which political short-termism prevents long-term investment; the regulatory capture trap, in which entrenched bureaucratic interests colonize reform processes; and the development assistance trap, in which donor-driven reforms generate dependency and misalignment with local contexts. Path dependency mechanisms including increasing returns, lock-in effects, and sunk costs were demonstrated empirically across multiple reform episodes. The study proposes a Structural Reform Escape Framework (SREF) outlining conditions and strategies for breaking entrenched failure cycles. Keywords: TVET reform failure, path dependency, institutional inertia, Nigeria, historical institutionalism.