Trend Analysis of Tertiary School Enrolment in Edo State Using Secondary Data from the National Bureau of Statistics

Tertiary education enrolment trends in Edo State, South South Nigeria, reflect broader patterns of higher education access, gender equity, and institutional capacity that statistical trend analysis can help characterise for planning and policy purposes. This study analyses trends in tertiary school enrolment in Edo State from 2010 to 2022 using secondary data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Universities Commission. Annual enrolment data disaggregated by institution type, sex, and field of study were analysed. Trend analysis used linear and polynomial regression. Gender parity index trends were computed annually. Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend tests supplemented regression findings. Total tertiary enrolment grew from 68,400 in 2010 to 142,600 in 2022, a 108 percent increase. Linear regression confirmed a statistically significant upward trend (R-squared = 0.96, p < 0.001). University enrolment grew faster than polytechnic enrolment (compound annual growth rates of 8.4 versus 4.1 percent). Female enrolment increased from 38 to 47 percent of total, with the gender parity index improving from 0.61 to 0.89. Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields showed the slowest female enrolment growth. Mann-Kendall tests confirmed monotonically increasing trends in all institution types. The study recommends that Edo State higher education policy continue gender equity interventions and consider polytechnic and college of education infrastructure investment to correct the relative underinvestment in non-university tertiary enrolment growth. Keywords: tertiary enrolment trends, education statistics, Edo State, gender parity, Mann-Kendall test